Exposure analystEXPOSEDbiggest if it happens: +$370M a year (+25.8% of profit)
Policy analystWEAK LINKno Nov 3 contest moves 1% of profit
Market analystPRICED3 markets on Kalshi and Polymarket
Red TeamCAUTION10 flags to read
Risk Officer
Election risk
LOW
Nothing passes the bar. Biggest: −$8.0M a year (−0.6% of profit) if Texas moves to shut prediction-market betting as a gambling loophole, but under 1% of profit.
Policy risk
HIGH
Kalshi puts 21% on: the Clarity Act (crypto market-structure law) becomes law before 2028. For Coinbase: +$370M a year (+25.8% of profit).
High = share of profit × chance (policy) or × election swing (election) of at least 2% of profit; Medium at least 0.5%.
Share card
Exposure analyst
Where the profit comes from and what a government can move.
Base: FY2025 operating profit $1.44B sourceverified Full profit structure: structure.md in this folder.
Locked in regardless of the election
GENIUS Act (stablecoin law, July 2025) is in force; $1,348.8M of FY2025 stablecoin revenue sits under it
R&D expensing restored by P.L. 119-21 (below operating profit)
Nevada already stops sports event contracts (Gaming Control Board action); both governor candidates back that (book p 0.30 each, swing 0), so it is not a link
Policy analyst
What each winner would do, how, and the chance it happens if they win.
Policy book: built here, last edited 2026-10-27, 197 contests, fingerprint f97e319e0772. Chances come from historical rates (an upper bound for two years), not forecasts.
Market analyst and Risk Officer
Each market, its price, and the yearly profit change if it resolves.
Will a crypto market structure bill become law before Jan 1, 2028?
Yes if a bill that sets a comprehensive digital-asset framework, splits SEC/CFTC authority and defines when tokens are securities or commodities becomes law before Jan 1, 2028. Stablecoin-only, tax-only bills and agency rules do not count. · KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE-26JAN
If the Clarity Act (crypto market-structure law) becomes law before 2028
+$370M a year
+25.8% of operating profit · range $0 to +$740M estimated
Market price before Jan 1, 2028
Kalshi21%
135,651 contracts
chance 21%election swing 0.05meaningful
How this number is built
transaction revenue $3,802.5M (consumer $3,322.8M + institutional $479.7M, FY2025) x 10% lift from a federal rulebook (0-20%) x 86% contribution margin (1 - transaction expense $1,020.2M / revenue $7,181.3M) = $327M; + staking: net staking $249.9M ($677.4M - $427.5M rewards fees) x 84% US x ~20% of US population in the 5 states that paused staking (CA, NJ, SC, WI, MD) = $42M; total ~$370M a year
Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026?
Yes if a bill that bars CFTC-regulated prediction markets from offering sports contracts, or puts them under state gambling law, is signed into law (or passes over a veto) by Dec 31, 2026. · law-banning-sports-prediction-markets-enacted-in-2026
If a federal law bans sports contracts on CFTC-regulated prediction markets in 2026
−$65.0M a year
-4.5% of operating profit · range −$40.0M to −$110M estimated
Market price by Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket18%
$21,034 traded
chance 18%election swing 0.00meaningful
How this number is built
prediction-market revenue ~$100M a year (Q2 2026 annualized, range $70-150M) x 75% sports share (68-83%) x 86% contribution margin = ~$65M a year
Resolves to the party of the person sworn in as Texas Lieutenant Governor for the term beginning in 2027. · KXLTGOVTX-26
If Texas moves to shut prediction-market betting as a gambling loophole
−$8.0M a year
-0.6% of operating profit · range −$4.0M to −$15.0M estimated
Who wins (chance the policy follows is estimated)
Dan Patrick (R)
71%
to win
Kalshi71%
23,825 contracts
Polymarket72%
$8,999 traded thin
If they win: 35% chance it happens
interim charge 'Closing Gambling Loopholes': study prediction-market betting as circumventing the Texas gambling ban and recommend fixes · make: same party, strong · source
Vikki Goodwin (D)
29%
to win
Kalshi29%
24,911 contracts
Polymarket28%
$12,140 traded
If they win: 0% chance it happens
no stated position · none
Policy book TX-lieutenant-governor.md: Patrick row 0.35 (make: same party, strong); Goodwin has no gaming-betting row (0). A state rule may face CFTC preemption litigation.
chance 25%election swing 0.35below the bar
How this number is built
prediction-market revenue ~$100M a year x 9.2% Texas share of US population (31.3M / 340M) x 86% contribution margin = ~$8M a year
Clarity Act +$370M rests on an assumed 10% lift in transaction revenue (range 0-20%); no public estimate of the lift was found (estimated)
Sports prediction-market link: Coinbase prediction-market revenue ~$100M annualized is a press summary of the Q2 2026 letter, not a filing number; sports share 68-83% from secondary sources
Book row doubt: US-house/senate-control give the Clarity Act p 0.05 under every majority, while Kalshi prices 21% for law before 2028; the book p and the market disagree by 4x
Book row doubt: TX-lieutenant-governor Patrick gaming-betting row is an interim study charge (study, then recommend fixes) but is routed 'make: same party, strong' 0.35, while his data-center study charges are 'vague' 0.05; a study charge reads like 'vague'
Texas link uses Texas's population share (9.2%) for Coinbase's Texas prediction-market revenue; state split not disclosed
Base is FY2025 operating income $1,435M; H1 2026 was an operating loss, so shares of a 2026 run-rate would be much larger
Sports-ban market (Polymarket) is thin: $21k volume, 10-25 cent spread
Policy risk HIGH would be LOW at the low end ($0) of the impact range for: the Clarity Act (crypto market-structure law) becomes law before 2028. Read how the impact was built.
the Clarity Act (crypto market-structure law) becomes law before 2028: the impact is an estimate, not a reported number.
a federal law bans sports contracts on CFTC-regulated prediction markets in 2026: the impact is an estimate, not a reported number.